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Myth #3: Technology will save the day

Many people believe that there is no need to change the way our cities and transportation systems are planned because the problems associated with our suburban environment will be solved in the near future by technologies that are currently "just around the corner". Considering how serious some of these problems are, I believe it is extremely risky to rely for their solution on technologies which may never make it to the marketplace. It would be far better to attempt to solve these problems with proven technology. That is not to say that these technologies are not worthy of research, on the contrary: anything that has the potential to solve a real-life problem is worthy of research.

Some of these technologies are:

	More efficient cars		Maglev
	Personal Rapid Transit		Telecommuting
	More Efficient Cars: There are many ways in which cars can be made more fuel efficient: new propulsion systems such as fuel cells or hybrid gasoline-electric drives, smaller, lighter cars, and better aerodynamics to name a few. Industries must strive to make all vehicles as efficient as technology and economics allow; not only cars, but also trucks, motorcycles and transit vehicles. In the past 30 years, cars have achieved tremendous gains in fuel efficiency, however, these gains have been cancelled out by an increase in car use over the same period caused by decreasing efficiency of towns and cities. In order to achieve any real reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, future improvements in the efficiency of cars must be coupled with improvements in the efficiency of towns and cities.
	Personal Rapid Transit: The concept of personal rapid transit has been around for at least 60 years, and renewed interest has been sparked by the recent advances in computers and communications. Although the various proposals differ, the common theme is that passengers travel in individual computer-controlled cars along a fixed guideway, and can travel between any two destinations without having to change vehicles. I am dubious that this is possible with current technology, but even if it were, the pitfalls would be many. For a start, people would only start to use such a system when a significant network of guideways has been built. The guideways would have to be grade separated in order to avoid collisions with other traffic, and the cost of constructing such guideways would be much higher than for, say, a highway or a light rail system carrying the same number of passengers. The advantages of transit are all derived from the fact that transit vehicles carry large numbers of people between fixed destinations. Personal Rapid Transit negates these advantages, while retaining many of the disadvantages of cars, such as high cost, large space requirements, and inefficiency.
	Maglev: Since the 1950’s researchers have been building vehicles which use magnetic repulsion to float above a track, and to propel the vehicle. The supposed advantages of this system are that the reduced friction between vehicle and track will allow faster speeds, steeper inclines, tighter curves, and higher efficiencies than conventional electric trains. So far, a maglev has not been produced that has any of these benefits, and the disadvantages are many. The cost of building tracks for maglev vehicles is much higher than conventional trains, and maglev vehicles will not be able to run on conventional trains’ tracks, or vice versa. The only maglev so far to run in regular service was a ¼ mile route connecting Birmingham International airport in England with a regional rail station. The cost of running and maintaining it was too high, and the airport replaced the service with diesel buses. The airport is now considering running cable-hauled light rail vehicles on the old Maglev guideway.
	Telecommuting: The principle behind this theory is that as the internet reaches maturity, large numbers of people will  eventually be able to work from home, thus reducing the need for lengthy commutes. The past two centuries have seen enormous advances in telecommunications: postal service, the telegraph, the telephone, radio, TV, fax machines and  mobile phones to name but a few. These advances all had the effect of extending the range over which business or personal relationships can be carried out, however, they did not remove the need for face-to-face interactions, delivery of goods, or hands-on work. Although the internet is still in its early days and its future can only be guessed at, it is likely that its effect will be similar to previous advances in telecommunications: business trips will become longer and more frequent, goods will be shipped greater distances, and companies will further deconcentrate their office and manufacturing facilities. Meanwhile, telecommuting is still only likely to be used by the small number of workers who can work in physical isolation.